Upleg Ended in Oil?

My work presents two compelling scenarios for oil prices: 1) that Friday's peak at 75.78 ended the upleg from last Nov., and prices already have started a prolonged corrective process; and 2) that current weakness is a minor pullback ahead of one more thrust to another new high in the $78 area prior to the onset of a very significant decline. Right now the weight of evidence leans towards scenario #1; however, my inclination is to give the benefit of the doubt to the emergence of another rally -- at least a retest of the $76 area -- prior to establishing short positions.

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