VIX Derivative UVXY is Acting Relatively Strong. Is it Sending a Message About the Underlying Health of the SPX Heading into 2015?

The ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Fut ETF (UVXY) continues to carve out what appears to be a rounded base formation at the tail end of a Dec decline from 33.14 to 20.00 (-40%).

That said, to confirm the completion of the base, UVXY must hurdle and sustain above 21.80, which will trigger upside follow-through projections in to the 24.00 area initially.

In the absence of a sustained climb above 21.80, “the base” could actually be a bearish consolidation pattern in disguise, especially if 20.00 is violated on a closing basis.