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VIX Plunge Warns Bulls of Impending Price Weakness


Although the major market ETF's certainly do NOT yet exhibit much if any weakness, and likely will attempt another rally or two today in the absence of any selling pressure, my pattern and momentum work continue to argue that risks are mounting quickly for holders of long positions...regardless of what happens in reaction to tomorrow's expiration Friday.

Another piece of technical evidence that should concern the bulls "up here" is the picture provided by the VIX, or Volatility Index, which has plunged to near 6 month lows, a condition that in the past has warned the bulls of impending price weakness.

The fact that the VIX has plunged to near historical lows during September likely is very unusual-- when stock price weakness (not strength) and VIX strength (not weakness) is much more the seasonal norm. The apparent complacency and confidence exhibited by the bulls (evidenced by the plunge in the VIX), coupled with an investment environment that would appear to be priced for goldilocks perfection, could be a prescription for any measure of not-so-good news or (heaven forbid) bad news.

See annotated chart analysis below on the relationship between the VIX and S&P 500.

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