Vicious SPX Rally: Recovery or New Upleg?

The derivatives of the SPX have been climbing since around 7 AM ET Thursday morning, after they retested Wednesday's lows.

The cash SPX hit its low at 1820.66 on Wednesday morning, and has climbed to an intraday Friday high (so far) at 1898.16, a gain of 77.50 points (+4.3%).

Thus far, the rally has recovered 39% of the Sept-Oct decline.

Let's notice that the SPX is bumping up against the down-sloping 200-Day EMA—violated on the way down on Monday-- now at 1899.60, which represents the first Litmus Test for the market.

A sustained climb above the 200-Day EMA-- especially on a Friday closing basis... no doubt will be an impressive two-day performance... but is it indicative of the start of a new upleg after a completed correction?

Purely from a technical perspective, only a climb in the SPX above 1930 will trigger signals that, in fact, a significant corrective low was established at 1820.66 within the larger, post-2009 bull run.

Conversely, inability of the SPX to make much, if any, additional upside progress within the 1900-1930 resistance zone, followed by a decline that breaks and sustains beneath 1876, will trigger preliminary signals that a vicious counter-trend recovery rally is complete within a developing bear phase.

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