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Was Thursday's Rally in ES the Start of a New Upleg, or a Counter-trend Bounce?


So far, the recovery rally in ES (Emini S&P 500) has followed a relatively bearish script-- climbing right to key resistance at 2141 (actually 2143.25), where it has pivoted to the downside for a bout of weakness that so has pressed 10 points to the downside, into the 2133 area.

The fact that ES recovered to key resistance and turned south adds some conviction to my suspicion that the dominant trend is down, and the bounce off of 2107.75 is a counter-trend rally ahead of a resumption of weakness that will revisit key support at 2107.

Yellen's speech later this morning could have directional consequences, especially if she remains hawkish, and provides additional evidence that a rate hike will be forthcoming before the end of the year.

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