Was Today the Turn?

Was today THE turn? Although the technical work certainly provides compelling evidence that a near term turn is in progress, THE ACTUAL TURN CONTINUES TO REMAIN ELUSIVE... Nonetheless, we are positioned in partial long positions in the SPYs and the Q's in anticipation of the potential for a Tuesday Turnaround....

In the Qs -- the Nasdaq 100 Tracking Stock (QQQQ) -- my intermediate-term work argues that all of the action off the January high at 43.31 is part of a major corrective process that is nearing completion in the 39-38 corrective target zone. If my analysis proves accurate, then an upside turn in the Qs here will be much more powerful than anyone is expecting.

In other words, the elusive upleg is the Qs -- possibly to new highs in sympathy with the early May rallies in the SPX and the DJIA -- is not out of the question. For starters here, though, let's look for an initial breakout above key near-term resistance at 39.50.

Turning our attention to the SPY (S&P 500 ETF), my work argues that the SPY should be on the verge of an upside reversal that will propel the price structure towards a confrontation with near-term resistance at 127.25/60, which if (when) hurdled will trigger upside acceleration into a full-fledged recovery rally towards my next target zone of 129-130.

Oil is also making a turn. Below is the look of my hourly chart analytics of the USO, which shows today's upside pivot reversal off of new reaction lows at 64.89 into the area of last week's key resistance plateau at 66.60/80.

If that level is hurdled it should trigger upside acceleration towards my next optimal target zone of 69-70. Only a plunge that breaks today's low at 64.89 will compromise the developing constructive near-term pattern. >

Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com ETF Trading Diary (www.mptrader.com), a real-time diary of his technical analysis on equity markets, futures, metals, currencies and Treasuries.

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