What Does GOOG Pattern Tell Us About Likely Reaction to Tonight's Earnings?

Notwithstanding the fact Google Inc. (GOOG) could knee-jerk $26 in a heartbeat in either direction in reaction to earnings tonight, the dominant year-long trend--if it continues to exert influence on near-term price direction--suggests strongly that the reaction to earnings will be 1)negative, and/or 2) to sell strength if the initial move is up towards the declining, 200-day EMA, now at 539.75.

If GOOG disappoints, then my sense is that its minimum downside target is 480-475, with an optimal downside target of 450-440.