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What Now for Long-Term YIELD?


Ten-year YIELD has climbed 34% from its Nov 4 pivot low at 1.72% to this morning's high at 2.31%!

The vertical assault in reaction to the "shocking" Trump election, and after a 35-year Bear Market in YIELD, has propelled YIELD into heavy and consequential resistance between 2.25% and 2.50%, which will require robust economic growth to successfully penetrate and hurdle.

Tomorrow's data on Retail Sales for October represents the first data-point after the Trump election, and could re-calibrate perceptions about the strength (weakness) of the U.S. economy 8 years after The Financial Crisis.

The fact that the Daily Sentiment Reading (DSI) for falling bond prices (the inverse of YIELD) registered a low, single digit reading of 4 as of Friday's close argues strongly that a period of digestion and correction should be forthcoming in the hours again-- especially if Retail Sales is a mediocre report.

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