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What is the SPY vs TLT Relationship Telling Us, if Anything?


I find the enclosed comparison chart to be fascinating, because it shows the ETF of the benchmark S&P Index-SPY, (shown as the upper chart) hugging the upper-boundary line of the bullish channel that has developed off of the Oct 2011 corrective low at 107.43.

Since Oct 2011, there are 8 or 9 rally peaks that have created a very powerful upper-boundary resistance line, which likely will require a bullish catalyst to hurdle. In the absence of such a catalyst, the path of "least resistance" likely is shifting from up to down.

Equally, if not more fascinating, is the juxtaposition of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT), which appears to have broken out of a year-long base-like pattern that points to 118-120 next.

Such a climb in the TLT's could be a function of lack of T-bond supply within a distorted Fed-influenced treasury market, or perhaps, it is a reflection of an impending shift in investor psychology that increasingly fears a sharp equity market sell-off.

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