What is the VIX Saying About Market?

If we step back a bit and try to view the May-June cash VIX, it appears to me that the VIX is acting too strong if the S&P 500 Index (SPX) action is forecasting a new upleg (Fed-induced or otherwise), and continuation to test and hurdle the May high.

That said, however, if the VIX breaks and sustains beneath 16.00-15.50, then it will return to "positive market synchronization" rather than anticipation of impending market negativity.

For the time being, 16.30-16.00 remains important support, while a climb above 17.25 should trigger upside continuation towards a revisit of the June highs at 1850/60.

Such a retest also will complete a powerful multi-week bottom that should be problematic for upside continuation of the SPX.