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What is the e-SPH Pattern Telling Us Pre-FOMC?


Entering mid-session ahead of the FOMC statement at 2 PM ET, and then Yellen's Press Conference at 2:30 PM ET, what, if anything, is the hourly chart pattern of the e-SPH telling us 60 minutes ahead of Fed Time?

My pattern work indicates that the initial reaction to the statement will be positive, and could run the index up to the 200.00 area to challenge the upper-boundary line of the December down-channel.

Right now, such a move looks like it should represent the concluding thrust of the counter-trend advance off of yesterday's late session low at 1963.00, which, if accurate, means that from near the vicinity of 2000, I will be expecting the dominant Dec downtrend to reassert itself.

Only an extraordinary rally that takes out 2001 and rockets through 2012 will indicate that yesterday's lows at 1961.50 and at 1963.00 could represent an actual corrective bottom.

Conversely, inability of the e-SPH to climb to a new intraday high above 1994.50 followed by a sharp decline that breaks 1968.25 will confirm that the dominant downtrend already has reasserted itself, with a press towards 1950/40 the next.

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