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e-SPH and NYMEX Crude Oil At the End of a Wild Week


Although NYMEX Crude Oil is up $2/bbl today, let's notice that on the enclosed 4-hour chart (below) that the move is barely noticeable so far.

Crude must climb and sustain above $59.30 to morph this week's double low into a double bottom.

In the absence of the required strength, all we can say is that this week's action is a rest/digestion period within the grasp of the still-dominant downtrend.

As for the e-SPH, after a crazy volatile couple of sessions before the FOMC statement, and then after a couple of vertical thrust sessions after the FOMC meeting, is it any wonder that the market is a bit tuckered out today?

Notice that I did not use the term "exhausted," because if it was exhausted, then my suspicion is lots of folks would be anxious to exit, locking in their recent windfall gains.

Instead, my sense is the market is resting ahead of a second or third or fourth wind, which will propel it to 2100 next.

Only a decline that breaks and sustains beneath 2040 will alter my near-term outlook.

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