Bear Market Low For Bitcoin?

BTC hit an overnight low at 15,546 which pretty much satisfied the upper boundary of my 12,000-15,000 target zone for the technical breakdown from the June-October bearish digestion period. After CPI, it bounced with every other asset class to 17,500. That said, however, to actually confirm a significant bear phase low, BTC will need to climb above 21,500.

So that is my subjective analysis of an objective technical setup that is not taking into account all of the actual financial pain, damage, and uncertainty created by the fallout (that we know about so far) from the FTX debacle. What I will say is that if and when BTC does hurdle 21,500, my technical work will argue that the damage and fallout is behind Bitcoin... BUT, until that happens, we have no idea where the low in BTC could be... MJP