Benchmark 10-Year Yield Gaps Down On Ukraine News

Benchmark 10-year YIELD has gapped down to 4.33% from yesterday's high at 4.49% (and 4.51% last Friday), owing largely to a flight-to-safety in reaction to the Ukrainian attack on Russian territory using US-made missiles. 

Let's notice that today's weakness also has violated the dominant September-November up trendlineat 4.39%, which now becomes initial resistance on any rebound in YIELD from this AM's low at 4.33%. If YIELD is unable to claw its way back above 4.40% on a closing basis today, it will remain vulnerable to additional technical weakness that points next to a breach of the up-sloping 20 DMA, now providing support at 4.33%... Last is 4.36%...

In terms of TLT (20+ Year T-bond ETF), my attached 4-hour Chart shows the price structure pushing up against its dominant September-November down trendline that cuts across the price axis in the vicinity of 91.30 this AM, and if hurdled and sustained, will trigger a run at 92.50/60 in route to 93.25/75 thereafter. 

Let's hope the reason for this decline in YIELD and pop higher in PRICE morphs from escalating geopolitical tensions to purely technical corrective action, for all our sakes... Last in TLT is 90.95...


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