Bias To The Upside

Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders!  March 5, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:

-- The War enters Day #5... 

-- ES is circling the mid-section of a multi-month range amid an impending historical directional shift from negative to positive (See chartwork below)...

-- Oil Prices climbed to a new "wartime" high at $78.09 overnight, threatening to emerge from a multi-year range...

-- AVGO (Broadcom) reacted positively to Earnings, which has goosed the stock 6%, but can AVGO continue to climb to inflict meaningful damage to the still-dominant three-month correction?  

-- COST reports Earnings after today's close...

-- Economic Data Today: Weekly Jobless Claims ahead of Friday's Monthly Jobs Report for February... 

ES-- How should we treat the multi-month sideways, rangebound pattern carved out by ES since last September (See my attached 4-hour chart)? One thing I believe with certainty is that when the index eventually emerges from the range, the directional move will be powerful and have significant implications fundamentally. 

At the moment, my bias is to the upside for strength that continues to climb off yesterday's low at 6718.75 (near the lower boundary of the range) toward the upper boundary plateau starting at 6990 that extends to 7040. 

My upward near-term bias is a reflection of 1) what so far looks like a bullish pattern so far exhibited within the rally off 6718.75 to the overnight high at 6900.75... 2) the historically lopsided directional customer put option position hitting the highest level going back to 2010, suggesting ES is likely to rally (sharply) to hurt the entrenched short position... 3) that give or take a day or so, the 20 year seasonal tendency for the latter three weeks of March flips from negative to positive... 

Bottom Line: As long as any acute weakness (financial or geopolitical shock?) precipitates a nosedive in ES beneath 6720, my bias is to buy dips and participate on the long side... Last is 6851... 

Next Up: Crude Oil and AVGO...