Big-Picture Condition Indicators Argue For Market Upside

Emotions vs. The Big Picture Technical Indicator Conditions

With each passing hour and headline, the stock indices react instantaneously to the prospect of EITHER purported total destruction of the Iranian nation-state OR something much less devastating that presumably paves a conciliatory path forward. No one knows what to expect during the 9-1/2 hours until the deadline time. 

Extremes: Total annihilation vs Ceasefire/Surrender?  Will either or both extremes open the Strait of Hormuz? 

The Gray Area:  Everything in-between the extremes...

Technically, however, my Big Picture Condition Indicators are saying, "don't worry, look for a positive outcome" (whatever that looks like)!...

Condition #1: The McClellan Oscillator set up shows the indicator has surged off of its mid-March acute oversold conditions, suggesting that WHEN there is ANY LIGHT at the end of the tunnel, the SPX should enjoy a powerful upmove (from where, however, no one knows)... (Cont'd below)

Condition #2:  The VIX setup continues to show Cash VIX in a relatively subdued state, well below the Upper BBnd Line, also suggesting that the bear market in EMOTION is stretched and waning... (cont'd below)...

Condition #3:  The SPX is positioned well above its lower BBnd Line, and in fact, is probing the mid-point between the bands (6590), which if (when) hurdled, will trigger a run toward 6800... 

Conclusion: These three indicators show conditions are conducive for a power rally, not a market implosion... But in the fog of war, the fallout from continued, unrelenting uncertainty can push the SPX to much lower levels than anyone envisions. Such has been, and still is, the investor's dilemma... Hopefully, one way or another, later tonight, the fog of war will clear enough to send the SPX in a particular direction.

These technical conditions argue the direction will be to the upside...