TLT (20+ Year T-bond ETF) continues to flirt with a significant Oct.-Nov. upside breakout plateau at 98 to 100, which if hurdled and sustained, has the potential to climb next to 103-105.
Today's cooler-than-expected PPI on the heels of last Thursday's cooler-than-expected CPI has catapulted TLT from under 96 to over 99 but explosive upside price action (a real plunge in longer-term bond YIELDs) remains elusive, likely awaiting another data point from the labor economy or the health of the consumer to light the next fire under the perception that inflation is rolling over AND the economy is softening.
With the foregoing in mind, the immediate catalysts could be one of the Fed Heads who changes his/her tune about the need to remain vigilant despite signs of peak inflation, perhaps afraid of over-staying the Fed's welcome within a very draconian rate hike cycle. Or maybe tomorrow we see still weak Mortgage Applications data or sluggish Retail Sales. How about a highly-demanded 20 Year T-bond at tomorrow's auction? Finally, maybe the WSJ or the Financial Times posts a well-timed online article that quotes "Fed sources" thinking that MAYBE 25 basis points cannot be ruled out at the December meeting?
At the moment, TLT needs to hold above 97.00, and as long as that is the case, TLT will remain poised for upside continuation... Last is 98.74 off of an intraday (pre-market) high at 99.15