Classic, Sharp Countertrend Recovery Rally

Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders!  April 8, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: Okay then!  Considering that the major equity market indices are up 2.5% in pre-market trading, is the correction over? 

I hope it is, but my work warns me that what we are witnessing is a classic, violent counter-trend recovery rally that has a high probability of becoming a 1-Day Wonder on the upside ahead of a resumption of weakness within the dominant downtrend. 

Let's get our bearings this AM with my 15-minute and WEEKLY ES Chart setups:

From a near-term perspective (my 15 Minute Chart), ES has recovered into the vicinity of intense resistance represented by the extension of the post-pandemic up trendline that cuts across the price axis in the vicinity of 5232 and yesterday's violent rumor-induced spike-high of 5286.50. 

If ES manages to chew through resistance from 5232 to 5286.50 on a sustained basis, my WEEKLY ES Chart setup argues for upside continuation into intense Fibonacci Resistance lodged from 5340 to 5465, where the recovery rally will amount to a 10.5% to 13% of the 22.5% correction from the ATH at 6233.50 to the 4/07/25 low at 4832.00...

As far as my pattern and momentum work are concerned, in EITHER SCENARIO, ES strength is considered a recovery rally within an incomplete larger correction that points to 4700 and more than likely closer to 4500 prior to a sustained rally period... 

Should ES roll over from beneath 5286.50 and break below key intraday support from 5155 down through 5118, it will be vulnerable to a press to revisit the 4850-4900 area, leaving the overnight 2.5% rally in the dust as a 1-Day Wonder, head-fake rally effort... Last is 5220.50...