Climbing Crude Price Is Elephant In The Room

Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders!  April 29, 2026-- Pre-Market Update: 

--- Today is Fed Day (2 PM and 2:30 PM ET)...

--- Mag7 Earnings Day (MSFT, META, AMZN, GOOG after the close)...

--- But the elephant in the room this morning is the continued sharp climb in the nearby June Crude Oil price to a 3-week high at 103.82, which represents a 31.5% upmove since the April 17th pullback low at 78.97 (from the 4/07/26 high at 114.11)!

On one hand, the interesting aspect of the big jump in oil is that it implies the market is taking seriously POTUS's threat to prolong the blockade of all Iranian shipments out of the Strait of Hormuz to squeeze the Iranian leadership into (total) submission, but on the other hand, the equity indices (ES, SPY... see my attached charts below) are ignoring higher oil prices this morning, apparently moving on to "greener pastures" beyond the war, such as Powell's last FOMC meeting before the Trump Administration (provided the Senate confirms Warsh's nomination) ushers-in a new, presumably, rate cut friendly Fed Head, as well as another round of stellar Earnings from Mega-Tech this evening that reinforces the strong U.S. economy. 

As long as any forthcoming weakness in ES is contained above 7080/85 and in SPY, above 700-703, my pattern interpretation indicates the equity indices have unfinished business on the upside into new ATH-territory projected to 7050/90 and 717-721... Last in June Crude is 103.21... Last in ES is 7174.75, and last in SPY is 712.00...