Crude Oil -- The Elephant In the Room

Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders!  October 18, 2023-- Pre-Market Update: The Elephant in the Room is Crude Oil, with other markets trying to find some visibility within the Fog of War... President Biden is in Israel as we speak-- ground zero in the War Theater (what could go wrong?)... Benchmark 10-year YIELD continues to circle 4.85% ahead of this afternoon's comments from Fed Heads Waller, Williams, Bowman, and Barkin. Do they have a message for the markets? 

December Crude Oil (December is the new front month futures contract now) was up about $3/bbl at $88.57 in overnight trading amid the reaction to and accusations about the bombing of a hospital in Gaza. Dec. Oil has since pulled back to around $87/bbl. Technically, the pattern carved out from the 10/06 pivot low at $80.28 to last eve's high at $88.57 exhibits bullish form, and as such (if my interpretation is accurate), after the next pullback, my pattern work will be expecting Dec. Crude to make a run at the 9/27/23 high at $93.81, in route to $95 to $98 thereafter. At the moment, I am expecting pullback weakness to hold support in and around $85 ahead of the emergence of another powerful upleg... Last is $86.80...

ES and NQ remain stuck betwixt and between. My attached Hourly Chart of ES shows the battleground zone demarcated by Resistance at 4420/30 juxtaposed against Support at 4355/65. Whichever side of the range is penetrated and sustained has the potential to trigger directional follow-through to targets of 4460/65 and 4490-4500 on the upside versus 4320/30 and 4260/70 on the downside. At the moment, and unless yesterday's low at 4365.50 is violated and sustained, my "pattern bias" is for another upside run at resistance... Last is 4388.00...

NQ is also stuck in a contracting range. My attached Hourly Chart shows Resistance at 15,310-15,337 juxtaposed against Support at 15,050 to 15,100... 

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