Crude Oil Weakness The Elephant In The Room

Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders!  June 24, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:

The elephant in the MPT trading room this morning is the continued weakness in nearby (August) Crude Oil prices, which we see on my attached Hourly Chart, is bearing down on $70.00/bbl. The low so far is $70.84, the lowest price for a barrel of Oil since March 10th, and a full 35% below the US-Iran war spike high. As long as any forthcoming rally is contained below resistance at $74.50-$75.00 on a closing basis, August Crude points to a test of the 3/10/26 low at $67.50... Last is 71.07...(continued below my Oil Chart)... 

The downward pressure on Oil, coupled with a (so far) minor recovery rally in the technology names that were trounced yesterday (MU, SNDK, WDC, LAM, MRVL, INTC, AMD, NVDA, ORCL, et al), has set the scene for the first hour of trading (if not slightly longer). 

With the foregoing in mind, my technical focus during today's session is on the unfilled opening down-gaps left behind on yesterday's (technology plunge) in SPY and QQQ...

From the perspective of SPY, my attached Hourly Chart shows the unfilled down-gap from 744.32 to 739.63. The down-gap serves as a magnet for recovery price strength prior to a resumption of the dominant near-term downtrend. I am expecting SPY to attempt to fill some or all of the down-gap in the upcoming hours before rolling over into another bout of downtrend weakness that breaks yesterday's lows at 732.30 and 732.43, triggering a new lower target window in the vicinity of 722 to 725. 

In that the dominant week-long trend is down, we shouldn't be surprised to see SPY fail to close most or all of the gap before resuming its downward trek.

On the other hand, what would be surprising-- and a bullish trend-changer-- is if SPY climbed to fill the entire downgap (744.32) and continued higher or closed ABOVE the upper boundary of the down-gap... 

For now, my bias is to the downside after a failed attempt to close the gap, which, on a weak day for Oil, will be an eye-opener... Last in SPY is 735.86...

Next Up: The down-gap scenario from the perspective of the QQQ...