Dollar & GDX Poised To Reassert Their Dominant Trends

The Dollar (DXY) and the Gold Miners ETF (GDX)-- Both these markets exhibit important developing setups that argue for an approaching reassertion of their dominant trends-- down in DXY and Up in GDX.

DXY has climbed 3.4% from its 2/02 low at 100.82 into today's high at 104.23 and looks like it could have additional strength into the low 105 area prior to the conclusion of this counter-trend bounce and ahead of a resumption of dominant downtrend weakness. 

Should weakness develop below 105+, a close below 103.30 is my first indication that the counter-trend rally is exhausted.

Finally, with respect to the DXY BIG Picture setup, let's notice that the 100 DMA is about to cross BELOW the 200 DMA. While there is no emotional Wall Street label for this combination that I know of-- such as the 50 x 200 downward Death Cross, the last time the 100 DMA crossed beneath the 200 DMA was on 6/09/20 at 98.52 in the aftermath of the Dollar downturn in reaction to the Pandemic. During the subsequent 6 months, DXY pressed to a low of 89.26, representing a decline of 9.6%. 

As for GDX, let's notice on my attached Daily Chart that the price structure pressed to a new corrective low at 28.14 this AM, a full 15% off of its 1/25/23 upleg high off of the 9/26/22 low at 21.52. More importantly, however, is that GDX tested and has bounced off of its 200 DMA, now at 27.80 (which incidentally, is about to undergo a positive crossover with the up-sloping 100 DMA).

GDX is right in the zone from where I am expecting renewed buying interest and an upside reversal signal. That said, however, if the Dollar Index grinds up to 105 from 104, GDX might temporarily pierce beneath the 200 DMA (27.80) into the 27.10/40 area prior to my expectation of a powerful upside reversal that will be accompanied by a rollover in DXY... Last in GDX is 28.43... Last in DXY is 104.06

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