Downside Vulnerability for Emini S&P 500

Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders!  March 26, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:  There are 4 trading days remaining in March and in Q1, 2026... President Trump's ultimatum to the Iranian Regime expires tomorrow evening (6 PM ET?)...

What Am I Thinking (after President Trump's Truth Social warning this AM)?

First of all, I think fellow member Mary made an interesting point yesterday:  

Neither side appears to be negotiating in good faith.  Maybe there's no possible exit plan that allows either side to save face.  I'm thinking there will be boots on the ground by Saturday morning when the markets are closed...

Her comments got me thinking (oh no!) that neither side is negotiating in good faith because neither side sees a negotiated settlement as a desirable outcome. The only off-ramp is total victory.  The Iranian Regime was founded on, perpetuated by, and armed because of its hatred of Western society, embodied by the United States (The Great Satan) and Israel (Little Satan). From the perspective of the totalitarian theocratic Iranian Regime, nothing less than total victory ensures its survivability after this conflict. From the U.S. and Israeli perspective, my instincts tell me that all along-- and long ago-- Trump and Netanyahu agreed to pursue regime change-- nothing less will be acceptable in the end politically, economically, and militarily-- to both leaders, and for world public opinion. 

If there is a grain of truth to my instincts, then no, Trump is NOT negotiating in good faith because he is purposely giving the Iranian's a "deal" that they cannot and will not accept to arrive at their foregone conclusion that a "final, conclusive battle must be waged" to eliminate the Regime.

Meanwhile, the Iranian Regime, steeped in decades of hatred, probably won't even consider Trump's deal (and continues to say so), has been preparing for this eventuality for years...

In my opinion, both sides are saying, "bring it on!"

With my foregoing instincts in mind (my mind, in any case), what does it mean for the markets if cooler heads do not prevail?  The fog of war may be about to get much denser... hardly any visibility, which means one thing: protect your capital... move to a significant cash position, if necessary, and maintain a very manageable (size matters!) long position (use Call Options to stay involved) in anticipation of the FOMO trade-- Fear Of Missing Out on the "coming explosive post-war advance" that everyone seems to be expecting sooner than later.  In the fog of war, anything can happen... MJP

Here is the setup in ES as the clock ticks down on "The Ultimatum":

ES-- From an intraday perspective, ES needs to hold above 6753.25 to avert triggering downside vulnerability toward a full-fledged retest of Monday's "Peace Deal" low at 6483.50.

Conversely, to gain upside traction, ES needs to climb into and above consequential resistance from 6625 to 6685... Last is 6580.50...