ES Looking Higher, Yield Pressing To New Low

Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders!  December 5, 2023-- Pre-Market Update: 

-- ES remains perched above key two-week support at 4535-4545. Unless and until support is violated and sustained, my sense is that the bout of weakness from last Fri's high at 4607.75 is getting "tired" on the downside, and if so, then ES will pivot higher in the hours directly ahead. A climb above 4570 will be my first indication that the near-term pullback is over, and that ES is heading for a rest of 4600-4607.75. 

Only a break below 4535 will argue for downside continuation into a deeper correction that points to 4500 thereafter... last is 4557.75...

-- Benchmark 10-year YIELD has pressed to a new low at 4.20% off of its 5.00% multi-year high hit on 10/23/23 (see my attached Daily Chart below). All roads point to a challenge of very consequential support from 4.00% to 4.12%, which could very well occur later this week in reaction to any weaker-than-expected data emerging from the November Jobs Report. Only a sharp upside reversal that propels YIELD above 4.35% will arrest the powerful downmove from 5.00%...

-- TLT (20+ year T-bond ETF) is making new highs at 93.71 this AM for its October-December upleg. As long as any weakness is contained above the dominant up trendline in the vicinity of 92.20, TLT should grind higher into my next optimal target zone of 93.60 to 94.80, with an outlier target of 96.50 if the Jobs Report is considered relatively weaker than expected (Friday morning)... Last is 93.64...

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