ES Nearing Downside Reversal Signal

ES hit an overnight low at 6409, just above the up-sloping 20 DMA, now at 6408.  The differential between the price structure and the consequential directional MA has been squeezed to near-zero. Technically, this means that ES must pivot to the upside off of the MA to avert triggering a near-term Downside Reversal Signal in my work.

Of course, the index could-- and probably will-- circle the MA into Fed Chair Powell's speech at 10 AM ET Friday morning, but in case it doesn't do so-- i.e., it presses beneath the 20 DMA "to send Jay Powell a message," ES will be vulnerable to weakness into the 6365 level (the support line from the 6/23/25 low marking the end of the Israel-Iran war), and thereafter, into the vicinity of the up-sloping 50 DMA, now at 6294. 

If ES does press lower, the 6365 support Target Window will represent a 2.2 correction from the ATH, and at 6295, a 3.2% correction off of the ATH that will be similar to the 3.5% correction from the 7/31/25 high at 6468.50 to the 8/04/25 low at 6239.50... 

To regain upside traction intraday, ES needs to pivot to the upside off of 6408/09, climb and sustain above 6444.... last is 6425.75...