Earnings & Economic Releases Overlaid On Technically Vulnerable Equities Market

Good Monday Morning, MPTraders!  August 7, 2023-- More-Market Update: More Key Earnings Ahead that will provide a cross-section of business results as this round of earnings comes to a close (see my attached Earnings Calendar), Potentially Consequential Economic Data later in the Week (see attached Economic Calendar below), all overlaid on an overbought, technically vulnerable Equities Market...

As for ES, my attached hourly chart shows the dominant near-term stair-step decline from the 7/27 high at 4634.50 to Friday's (8/04) low at 4493.75 (-3%) followed by the Sun eve-Mon. AM bounce to an overnight high at 4522 (most of which has been relinquished, with ES currently trading at 4508). Compared to the 141-point decline, "the bounce" of 28 points or 28 points (at its overnight peak) now just 13 points or so, is not very impressive or reassuring to the bulls that ES might be at or near the conclusion of the current bout of weakness.

From the perspective of my attached Big Picture Daily Chart, the "bounce" in ES is hardly distinguishable with the dominant near-term downtrend pattern, and argues that unless and until ES can claw its way back above the overnight high at 4522 (providing some breathing room for the bulls), ES will remain extremely susceptible to downside continuation that presses next to test the March-August 2023 up trendline, now in the vicinity of 4432. 

Finally, it is notable this AM that Cash VIX is perched right at Friday's high, and atop its May-August rounded, base-accumulation period and pattern, poised for upside continuation... instead of its usual Monday "adjustment" of whatever direction dominated the prior Friday... 

Bottom Line: ES needs to climb above 4522 just to avoid rolling over into another downleg sooner than later. In the absence of a sustained minor upmove, 4432 is the optimal next downside target. From a bigger picture perspective, ES needs to climb above 4558 on a closing basis-- its 20 DMA, to neutralize the dominant near downtrend pattern... Last is 4511.00

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