ES Bottom Line: Yest's post-market reaction to NVDA earnings propelled ES to 4485.50, more or less right to its Swing Target (4484) off of the 8/18 corrective low of 4350 (see pink lines on my attached Hourly Chart), which also pierced a larger key resistance zone from 4480 to 4500 that includes the down-sloping 20 DMA, the horizontal 50 DMA (both at 4491), and the Fibonacci 50% Recovery Rally Retracement Level (4490/95)-- a combination that represents a formidable barrier to additional strength.
My pattern work AND the 4480-4500 resistance zone argue AGAINST upside continuation and in favor of a resumption of weakness from the 4485.50 high. If the weakness breaks and sustains beneath 4450, my work will trigger a lower target of 4420 thereafter.
Of course, tomorrow's Jackson Hole speech could have a potentially significant directional impact on ES, if for no other reason than the algorithms will be subject to triggering all sorts of volatile surges in one direction or other.
If the headline "risk" is to the upside tomorrow morning based on a perceived bullish shift in Chair Powell's outlook for inflation and for monetary policy, then such a "surprise" could trigger a "bullish reset" that propels ES above 4500 toward higher targets of 4525/30 and then 4550.
That said, however, in the absence of a "surprise" bullish reset introduced by Powell, my primary scenario argues that a counter-trend rally has run its course from the 8/18 (last Friday's) low at 4350 to today's high at 4485.50, leaving ES vulnerable to rolling over into another loop down that revisits 4350... Last is 4464.50...