ADP payrolls come in a bit light, but corroborate the JOLTS data released yesterday, and provide increasing evidence that the US economy IS softening, which could factor into the Fed's policy decision at its next meeting in May.
That said, however, Friday's Employment Report for April will carry considerably more weight than the combined impact of JOLTS and ADP.
And judging from the ZZZZZzzzzzz reaction to the ADP "miss," ES is trading around the exact same level now as it was before the ADP report and TLT (the longer term bond ETF) climbing but failing to hold above 108.00, the lack of action certainly suggests that traders and investors are content to await Friday AM's data (even though the stock markets are closed for Good Friday!).
Bottom Line: As long as ES is trading below 4148, the near-term pattern off of yest. AM's high at 4171.75 argues for a press to and below 4100 into the 4080/90 target zone. In terms of TLT, as long as it is trading above 106.75, my near term setup work argues for a run at the March high of 109.10 next... Last in ES is 4120... Last in TLT is 107.99