Eye On Oil & ES Ahead Of First Warsh Statement

Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders!  June 17, 2026-- Pre-Market Update: 

-- Today is and will be all about new Fed Head Kevin Warsh's impact on the FOMC, on the wording of his first monetary policy statement, and on the markets during his inaugural press conference...

-- As is always the case on Fed Day-- but more so today, considering it is Warsh's first meeting, market volatility from the time of the policy statement release at 2 PM ET to the closing bell at 4 PM ET (30 minutes after Fed Chair Warsh finishes an hour-long presser), volatility should remain relatively high as algos, traders, and investors interpret whatever messages the new Chairman imparts to us...

-- If my pattern setups on ES and August NYMEX Crude Oil (August is now the front futures month) are whispering anything meaningful to me about the reaction to Warsh, these are the messages:

From August Crude Oil-- As long as any forthcoming strength is capped at or under consequential resistance at $80-$82/bbl, the "Warsh Fed" will be perceived as tilting dovish on monetary policy in the upcoming weeks and months. Currently, Oil is circling $76.00 within a larger-developing top formation that has the potential to drive Crude considerably lower into the pre-war $55-$60 target window... Last is 75.90... (continued below my Oil Chart)... 

From the perspective of my Big Picture ES setup, as long as Crude Oil remains within or below resistance at $80-$82 (conditions for keeping Warsh tilted dovish), ES should hold support within or above 7570 down to 7540, which my pattern work identifies as the critical near-term bull-bear demarcation plateau that either maintains the bulls in directional control, or leaves them vulnerable to the onset of a deeper, more serious correction of the most recent upleg from 7294.75 (6/11/26) to 7648.75 (6/15/26)... Last is 7592.00...