Eye On Treasuries Ahead Of Tomorrow's Jobs Report

Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders!  September 4, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: It's all about Economic data in general, and tomorrow's Jobs Report in particular, for investors during the upcoming 24 hours. The data released this morning (after yesterday's lower-than-expected JOLTS report and stale Beige Book) tilts toward creeping weakness in the U.S. economy, and as such, more pressure on Powell to cut the Fed funds rate 25 bps in the September 17th FOMC meeting. That said, tomorrow's monthly Government Employment Report is the Big Kahuna that will move markets...

In reaction to two days of "second-tier" economic data, let's notice that 10-year YIELD has nosedived from 4.28% to this AM's 4.19%. Technically, YIELD is flirting with a breach of the May-September support line AND the August low (4.19%) that, if sustained, points lower to a challenge of the 12-month support line that cuts across the price axis in the vicinity of 4.11%...

In terms of TLT (20+ Year T-bond ETF), to gain serious upside traction (implying lower longer-term rates), the price structure will need to climb and sustain above consequential resistance at 88.20 to 88.45 (see my attached Daily Chart), which includes the 200 DMA, now at 88.22.

As it happens, tomorrow's Jobs Report is one of the only data releases that has the impact and cache to propel TLT 1.3% in either direction... Last in pre-market is 87.10/11...