Eye On Treasuries As Quarterly Refunding Announced

Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders!  November 1, 2023-- Pre-Market Update: Welcome to November! (See Table Below), Quarterly Refunding at 8:30 AM ET, ADP Monthly Employment Change (113,000 vs 130000 expected), and the Fed Policy Statment (Powell Press Conference)... After traders and investors digest all of the foregoing, then we can focus on AAPL Earnings on Thursday PM and Friday AM's Monthly Jobs Report... 

In about 5 minutes, investors and traders will find out how the US Treasury intends to fund its gargantuan deficit spending needs, albeit a lower gargantuan need of just $776 billion instead of $852 billion originally expected for merely the October-December 2023 quarter!  

Judging from the negative technical setup shown on my attached 4-Hour Chart of the TLT (10+ Year T-bond ETF), the long end of the bond market is more than likely to react to the downside in reaction to the Quarterly Refunding, and whatever the Fed (Powell) has to say later today. That said, should TLT press to a new low beneath 81.92 (10/23/23 low), my pattern work argues that the target window of 80 to 82 is the next zone from where a major upside reversal could emerge.

As for ES, my work remains in a gray area, awaiting a sustained climb above resistance at 4230/40 to trigger near-term upside reversal signals for a run at 4340/60. In the absence of the "required strength," ES remains vulnerable to another loop down to test initial support at 4166/69, and if violated, then toward a retest of last Friday's low-zone of 4128 to 4122... Last is 4199.25...

More after the reaction to the refunding... 

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