Eye On Yield Ahead Of Treasury Auction

Benchmark 10-year YIELD and TBT (Ultrashort, Double Levered, Inverse 20+ Year T-bond ETF-- TBT direction tracks the direction of longer-term YIELD):

My attached near-term chart of 10-year YIELD shows all of the yield movement since early-April's Tariff Liberation Day. Just before Tariff Liberation Day, YIELD hit a four-month low at 3.80%, but since then it has climbed as high as 4.59%, and is pushing up toward that level as we speak. 

From a pattern perspective, the setup from the 4/04/25 low at 4.89% increasingly argues that YIELD has been in the grasp of a bull phase that hit an initial upleg high at 4.59% (4/11/25), pulled back to 4.12% (5/01/25), and since then is stair-stepping higher in a secondary advance that has unfinished business on the upside. This advance should take out 4.59% en route to a projected minimum target zone of 4.80% to 4.86%. Only a bout of weakness that presses YIELD beneath 4.45% on a closing basis will neutralize or delay the thrust above 4.60%... Last is 4.54%...

From the tactical trading perspective of my Big Picture TBT setup that shows all of the price action from the March 2020 Pandemic Low to today (see chart below), the pattern carved out for the past 1-1/2 years has formed a rounded base-accumulation period that is putting enormous upward pressure on intermediate-term resistance lodged from 38.15 to 38.70 that if (when?) taken out will trigger a projection toward a retest of the October 2023 high at 44.96-- that at the time coincided with a 5% high on 10-year YIELD. Only a bout of weakness that closes beneath 36.30 will neutralize and/or delay the run at the Oct. 2023 highs. Last is 38.40...

As fellow member FJB pointed out earlier, at 1 PM ET, the U.S. Treasury will auction $20 billion 20-year T-bonds, which could be the next litmus test for foreign appetite for longer-term Treasuries. If the appetite is less than expected, guess who must eat the difference?  Yes, our very own Powell Fed in what may be another sign of stealth QE, especially ahead of the passage of the Big Beautiful Bill... MJP