Eyeing Support Amid Uncertainty In Debt-Ceiling Talks

Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders!  May 23, 2023-- Pre-Market Update: The Debt Ceiling Talks apparently were "productive," but no deal yet (should we hold our breath for the next two weeks?)... My sense is that after one of these productive but disappointing talks, Mr. Market is going to register his dissatisfaction with all things Washington, and then it will be "game on!" for Congress in the heat of investor losses and emotions... 

In the immediate aftermath of last eve's Debt Ceiling meeting between Biden and McCarthy, ES attempted to climb in reaction to apparently "good news" that the two sides were making progress, but thereafter, turned lower in to this AM's pre-market session where we see the index has pressed about 30 points beneath last eve's rally high, and is bearing down on the lowest coordinate in remnants of a bullish high-level Coil-type digestion pattern. 

The integrity of the original Coil support line was violated at 4198. Additional weakness and a breach of 4186.50 wrecks what's left of any form of a high-level bullish digestion pattern in the aftermath of last Friday's OPEX upside thrust to 4227.25, and will leave ES vulnerable to lower (orderly) near-term targets of 4170 and 4140/50 (which includes the location of the up-sloping 20 DMA as well as).

For the time being, my eyes are focused on 4186.50-4190.00. If this level holds, then my pattern work still sees a path higher for a run at 4250, but if 4186.50 breaks, the likelihood of disappointed and nervous long liquidation emanating from polarized vitriolic Washington politics becomes increasingly a motivating directional factor... Last is 4194.75...