Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! March 30, 2023-- Pre-Market Update: Two trading days remain before the end of the month of March (ME) and the end of Q1, 2023 ("QE"... lol).
From the look of the relentless 2.4% grind higher since Tuesday's pullback low (See my attached 15-minute and Hourly Charts) that continued during last eve's Pajama Trading Session into this AM's pre-market session, when ES hurdled the technically significant 3/22/23 FOMC Reversal HIgh, we cannot rule out a FOMO mini-panic rally into tomorrow's ME-QE closing bell.
If you are a fund manager who hasn't trusted the recent upmove, do you want to show your clients that you failed to allocate capital at the end of March into a risk-on environment? After all, the Fed supposedly is about finished with this rate hike cycle, right? And you could make the case that the Fed is adding liquidity again, and has actually reversed from QT to a form of QE to support the banking system, no?
In the absence of a very weak (low) data point on Weekly Jobless Claims (due out today at 8:30 AM ET) or a very strong (higher than expected) data point from the PCE Inflation report (tomorrow at 8:30 AT ET), we cannot rule out upside continuation and acceleration toward 4100-4120 (0.5% to 0.9%) possibly in route to a FOMO vertical assault to the vicinity of the early-February high-zone of 4200-4240 (another 3.5% from current levels around 4080).
In the event that something comes along to derail the ME-QE rally, ES will need to roll over into a nosedive that violates support from 4053 down through 4043... Last is 4080.50 off of a pre-open high at 4083.50...