Holding Just Above Key Support

ES weakness during the three-day weekend, precipitated by the fallout from "The Great Disruptor," President Trump's "threats" to take Greenland by force, and to engage in battle with NATO et al, has inflicted meaningful technical damage to the dominant post-11/21/25 uptrend. My attached Daily Chart shows ES has sliced beneath key support clustered in and around 6950/60, which includes the 8 Day EMA, the 20 Day SMA, and the dominant up trendline. 

ES proceeded lower, breaking and sustaining beneath the 50 DMA (6892), but so far, holding just above the 100 DMA, now at 6831, where the current correction off the ATH at 7036.25 nears -3%. 

Any bounce from the overnight low at 6846.75 will encounter stiff resistance at 6890-6700. If ES can recover and sustain ABOVE 6900, and the recovery rally exhibits bullish form (TBD), then maybe, just maybe the equity index is telling us that another BTD opportunitiy is unforlding.

HOWEVER, in the absence of the above-delineated scenario, ES will remain vulnerable to downside continuation that fully tests the 100 DMA, and if violated, "a 5%solution is on the table" that points to 6665-6675... Last is 6868.00...

The technical setup in Cash VIX argues for an upside target in the vicinity of 22.50/80 next... Last is 20.30...

Lastly, the January SPX seasonal, especially during Mid-term election years (dotted lines) argues for weakness into the end of this week before the seasonal tendency is "friendlier" to SPX strength...