Houston, Do We Have A Problem?
Good Monday Morning, MPTraders! September 22, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: Houston, do we have a problem?
Have a look at my attached charts:
The precious metals (GLD, SLV) markets continue to fly (risk on), benchmark 10-year YIELD has backed UP to 4.14% from 4.00% immediately after last week's FOMC rate cut (risk off), the Equity Indices (ES) are down slightly this AM (calling the weakness risk off is a stretch so far), and Bitcoin is pulling back (risk off)...
I don't know if we have a BIG problem yet, but it does appear that the same market force or forces are driving the precious metals higher, bond YIELDS higher as well (Expectations of explosive economic growth that kicks in from the Big Beautiful Bill? An inflationary surprise despite downward pressure on Oil and lack of strong evidence that tariffs are raising prices to U.S. consumers so far?)...
Meanwhile, equities continue to levitate just 0.5% off of Friday's ATH!
My instincts tell me "something's gotta give" sooner than later... Take note of my annotated directional dotted lines on each of my attached charts...
Finally, I will remind everyone that today is the 180th trading day of the year. Since 1985, trading days 180 to 200 have represented the weakest trading sessions of the year. This means that from September 22nd through October 17th could be a rough patch for the post-April bull market.
Whether or not today's minor weakness is a harbinger of a budding near-term correction remains to be seen... Follow the dotted lines...