How The Markets Are Positioned Heading Into Fed Time

Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders! March 20, 2024-- Pre-Market Update: Yes, it's Fed Time Again!  Yeh, yeh, yeh, we all know the variables heading into the release of the FOMC policy statement at 2 PM ET: 1) The number of rate cuts implied by how many dots show up on the FOMC Plot? 2) The FOMC member's forecast for economic growth and inflation? 3) Any hints that the Fed is starting to worry about recession? 4) Any change in the Fed's reference to forward guidance? 5) Any reference to the Peak Rate or Real Rate in Powell's presser following the 2 PM ET statement? Etc, etc, etc... 

Who knows?

What we do know is how the markets are positioned heading into Fed Time. My attached Big Picture Chart of ES, which we see is trading above yesterday's late-session high, and remains poised to thrust out of the Coil Formation that we have been discussing all week. Should such a scenario unfold in the upcoming hours-- either ahead of or in reaction to the FOMC policy statement, my optimal upside target zone is 5275 to 5300, which represents the next technical target zone from where my pattern analysis warns us about the emergence of selling pressure. 

Only a sharp negative reaction to whatever the Fed says and does later today that triggers a nosedive that slices beneath yesterday's pivot low at 5186 will wreck the integrity of the bullish March setup, and will argue strongly that the March setup now represents a meaningful top formation... Last is 5244.50...