10 Year Treasury YIELD has upticked from 2.52% to 2.54% and back down again, which we see on the attached chart is attempting to push up into serious resistance lodged from 3.55% to 2.62%, with the Nov.-Apr. down trendline cutting across the "yield axis" at 2.58% today.
My preferred scenario for YIELD calls for a rally peak in and around the 2.55%-2.58% resistance zone, followed by another loop down that revisits the March low-zone at 2.42% to 2.38% (and possibly lower) to conclude the entire larger bear phase off of last Fall's highs at 3.25%.
What catalysts might trigger a retest of the low zone for YIELD is anyone's guess, but a sudden swoon in the one-way stock indices is the first "event" that comes to mind, as investors again run into the bond market for safety.
Alternatively, what exactly would propel YIELD higher, above resistance at 2.58%-2.62% from here also is a guessing game. What comes to mind are possible subtle hints by the Fed Heads that the economy is stronger than they thought 3 months ago, and that after the pause, a 25 bps rate hike is still on the table. While such hints won't be politically acceptable, especially to POTUS, it certainly will exert Fed independence from the Executive Branch... Last is 2.52%