Larger Corrective Process Remains Incomplete

Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders!  March 3, 2026-- Pre-Market Update: 

What Now?  As we enter day 4 of the US/Israeli-Iran War, we have to ask ourselves if the markets are facing more or less uncertainty. At 4 PM ET yesterday, recovery market behavior suggested that Mr. Market was starting to see through the Fog of War.

This morning?  Not so much!

Technically, the intraday pattern carved out yesterday exhibited bullish form. As long as yesterday's pivot low at 6768.50 contained any pullback weakness, my preferred scenario argued for upside continuation, albeit after a pullback of some percentage of yesterday's 142.75 point, +2.1% upmove, toward a challenge of resistance in and around 7000.

The fact that the "pullback" after a 142.75 point advance turned into a rout that took back 118% of the upleg (-168.50 points), pressing ES to a new corrective low this AM at 6742.75-- a full 4.2% off the ATH at 7043, compels me to consider that the larger corrective process remains incomplete. 

My attached Daily Chart and 4-Hour Chart perspectives point to 6670/80 and 6600/30 (6580 downside "undershoot target) as the next "magnetic" downside target-attractions, where ES will test its up-sloping 200 DMA for the first time since 6/23/25 at 6075.50-- coincidentally and ironically, the exact date of the end of the 12-Day Israeli-Iran War last summer!...

Should such a scenario unfold, ES in the vicinity of 6650 to 6580 will represent a 5.5% to 6.6% correction from the ATH of 7043...

 Heading into today's session, only another relentless intraday upmove that challenges and hurdles resistance from 6870 to 6910 will neutralize and invalidate my expectation for a forthcoming bout of additional weakness that tests the 200 DMA in the hours ahead... Last is 6766.50...