Market Awaits Today's Release of BLS Jobs Revisions

Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! September 9, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: While investors await the next round of inflation data on Wed and Thurs AM at 8:30 ET, the elephant in the room today is the Annual US Nonfarm Payrolls Revisions, which are expected to be revealed today at 3:30 PM ET...

Estimates for downward revisions are as high as 1 million annual job losses.

In reaction to the data revisions, the White House likely will be critical of the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) revisions, and offer remedies to improve data collection (using the blockchain?) 

In any event, the BLS revisions for the past several months are expected to show considerably fewer jobs created (between April 2024 and March 2025), which presumably will add weight to the side of the scale that is dipping toward a rate cut at the FOMC meeting on September 17. 

My attached Big Picture chart of 10-year YIELD shows benchmark YIELD pointing next to a test of 3.95%-4.00%. Only a surprisingly modest downward revision in the BLS data or a hotter-than-expected PPI and/or CPI Core Annualized Inflation Report later in the week that propels YIELD above 4.11% on a closing basis will provide initial technical evidence that the July-September downleg from 4.50% to 4.04% is taking a breather... (continued below my YIELD chart)...

As for ES, as long as any forthcoming weakness is contained above 6452 (last Friday's post-Jobs Report spike low), the bulls will retain directional control, eyeing a retest of the ATH at 6541.75 en route to 6600-6620... Last is 6508.75... (continued below my Big Picture ES chart)...

KWEB (China Internet ETF) is on a few members' minds this AM for good reason: Perhaps after many, many months of bullish accumulation and multiple false upside breakouts, the price structure has gapped up to a new 3-year, 9-month high at 39.62 in pre-market trading. My attached 4-Hour and Daily Big Picture charts that as long as any forthcoming pullback weakness is contained within or above the upside breakout plateau at 38.15 to 39.65, a CLOSE today above 39.30 will trigger an intermediate-term bullish technical signal that projects next to 41.00 next en route to 46-47 and then to 50-52 in the upcoming weeks and months... Last is 39.50...