Pattern Bias Remains Bullish Ahead Of Fed News

Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders!  May 7, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: 

-- It's Fed Day ( 2 PM ET Policy Statement) followed by a Powell presser (2:30 PM ET)... Based on my current setup work, as long as ES is trading above 5600, my pattern bias remains bullish, looking for upside continuation that thrusts the index above nearest resistance from 5690 to 5706.50, which triggers a higher target zone of 5770-5775. Only a sustained bout of weakness that breaks 5600 will put my near-term pattern work on "Reversal Alert." Last is 5660...

As for the bond market, my attached 15 Minute Chart of benchmark 10-year YIELD shows an April-May pattern that appears to be developing into a large Coil formation (lower-highs juxtaposed against higher-lows). If the formation continues to develop as such, then the next directional move should be to the downside toward a challenge of the lower support line that cuts across the price axis in the vicinity of 4.18%. That said, for today's Fed reaction-- should it be construed as somewhat dovish, YIELD points to a potential target of 4.20% to 4.23%... Last is 4.31%...

Conversely, in the event the Fed and Powell are perceived to be hawkish to some degree (concerned with the inflationary consequences of tariff policy), a sustained climb above 4.37% will rupture the upper boundary line of the Coil, triggering a potential upside run at the early-April "tariff reaction high-zone" from 4.53% to 4.59%... 

Currently, based on my work, both ES and YIELD are poised for a dovish reaction to the Fed later today... Next up: AMD and UBER setups after Earnings...