Pattern Bias To The Downside Ahead Of Fed

ES-- Heading toward Fed Time at 2:00 PM ET, and thereafter, the Powell Presser at 2:30 PM ET, my work argues that ES is currently wedged between its recent Double High at 4608/09 (see my attached 4-Hour Chart) and very consequential support from 4500 to 4520 that includes the sharply up-sloping 20 DMA, the up-trendline from the 5/24 (NVDA low), and the June highs (now considered support at 4494 to 4498)... (see my attached Daily Chart).

In reaction to the Fed-- initially after the FOMC statement, and thereafter, during and following Jay Powell's press conference-- whichever side of the range is taken out and sustained will trigger follow-through projections to 4640/60 on the upside versus 4400-4420 on the downside from where ES is trading at the moment (4585).

The technical setup outliers should the Fed surprise the markets (if the Fed is perceived to be overly dovish or overly hawkish) are a run above 4660 that triggers a new upside target above 4800 versus a test and break of the sharply upsloping 50 DMA, now at 4403.16 that projects weakness into the 4250-4300 target zone...

At the moment, unless ES can take out the near-term Double High at 4608/09, my pattern bias is for ES to react negatively to the Fed, and press toward a test of the 20 DMA, now at 4520... Last is 4585.00...

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