QQQ In First Downleg Of Larger-Developing Topping Phase

QQQ Update: From a near-term perspective, QQQ is stuck between important support at 483 to 488 and resistance from 502 to 503.40 (see my attached 4-hour chart). As long as additional weakness is contained above or within the support window, my pattern work argues for another loop UP to challenge 502-503.40, and if hurdled, upside continuation toward 520-522. 

Conversely, should QQQ press beneath 483.00, then it will become MUCH MORE VULNERABLE to a new, powerful DOWNLEG that will point to 460 as a next immediate downside target window.

That said, however, one look at my attached Big Picture Weekly Cycle Chart work shows that a break of 483 will leave QQQ pressing toward a full-fledged test of the major up trendline from December 2022 that if violated, will trigger a significant negative technical reaction that my work points to a break of my next near-term downside target at 460 (mentioned above) to my optimal first WEEKLY downside target window in and around 430-435, where QQQ will have corrected 20% from the ATH at 540.95...

As for my Cycle Work, the fact that the current cycle is 75% complete is a disconcerting factor that weighs heavily on the potential continued intensity of the current Feb-Mar 10% downmove. To be fair, however, a 75% completed cycle that is entering its "hard down" position has not been a "death sentence" for the QQQ. The prior two cycle downturns did not intensify until the cycle was 80% and 85% complete.

While the current cycle might have some positive shelf life remaining before the bearish headwinds intensify to 80%+, it is nonetheless warning QQQ bulls in no uncertain terms that a bounce off of the 483-488 support window is strength to SELL (lighten up long positions, establish hedges, and position on the short side if so inclined)... 

My sense is that the Feb-Mar QQQ downmove from 540.95 into the 483-488 area represents the first downleg of a larger-developing topping phase that will roll over in earnest by this summer (if not sooner) into a hard-down price move into the anticipated cyclical bottom anticipated in late October 2025... Last is 496.64-- up from 492 while Commerce Secretary Lutnick jawbones the market higher on CNBC...