Recent Recovery Rallies In Emini S&P 500

ES-- At this AM's high of 3777.25, ES is up 7.9% from last Thursday's low at 3502.00, which approximates the magnitude of the thrust off of each significant recovery rally low during 2022 (discussed numerous times in last week's updates), and which satisfies the parameters of the INITIAL surge of a complex, prolonged recovery rally period that could last from 3 to 6 weeks prior to the resumption of the dominant trend. 

If a similar profile is developing now, then ES will peak before mid-day Thursday in and around a cluster of resistance at 3800-3820, retrace a significant chunk of the current upleg, prior to embarking on another advance that projects to 4000-4100 be the larger recovery rally period is finished, and the dominant bear trend resumes.

From a timing perspective, I can see the entire recovery rally scenario playing out ahead of the November 2nd FOMC decision (to hike at least 75 basis points)... Last is 3760.75 off of a high of 3777.25