Sell-The-News Risk to Equity Markets at ATHs

Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders!  June 16, 2026-- Pre-Market Update: 

-- Today, the 'Warsh Era" at the Fed begins its first FOMC (2-day) Meeting. Wednesday afternoon at 2 ET the fireworks commence, with all of the economic, monetary, and political tentacles exposed...

Most investors expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at the upcoming meeting, BofA survey shows. 55% foresee a “hawkish hold,” with Chair Kevin Warsh signalling higher-for-longer policy. Another 33% expect a “dovish hold,” leaving room for future cuts. Survey conducted June 5–11 (Walter Bloomberg on X)...

-- Today Options on SPCX begin trading fyi...

-- TSLA (407.60 in pre-market vs. yest close 410.41) will announce its quarterly deliveries soon. FYI-- Goldman Sachs believes Tesla's Q2 vehicle deliveries are likely tracking ahead of the 400,000 unit consensus estimate. Goldman upped its forecast to 420,000 units from 405,000, citing sales data points for Tesla's key regions China, the U.S., and Europe. Europe in particular is showing strong year-over-year growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Through May, Tesla's quarter-to-date deliveries are tracking down mid-teens year-over-year, adds Goldman. The firm keeps a Neutral rating on Tesla shares with a $375 price target...  MJP Comment: I think TSLA should be viewed less and less as a car manufacturer/seller and more as a robotics, data collector, and manufacturer-supplier of self-driving vehicles... 

-- President Trump is at the G-7 Meeting in France, doing a lot of explaining about the forthcoming signing of a peace MOU with Iran, which supposedly will happen this Friday sometime. In MHO, Wednesday's Fed Meeting (Warsh's nuanced Conference Call in particular) followed by Friday's peace deal (the details of which apparently are still being worked out) represent significant sell-the-news RISK to equity markets at ATHs... 

Let's go to the chart setups: First ES...

My Big Picture ES setup argues that the bulls are and will remain in directional control as long as any forthcoming weakness is contained above the 20 DMA (now at on a closing basis... 

Barring a close below the 20 DMA, ES points to a retest of the ATH at 7694.75, if taken out and sustained, will trigger a projection to 7720/30...

Conversely, a close below the 20 DMA will indicate that ES is in the grasp of a gap-filling expedition into the 7500 area before attempting another upleg to new ATHs... Last is 7623.00...