Spotlight On Rising Yield

Benchmark 10-year YIELD has pushed up to 4.75%, taking out my prior optimal target zone of 4.50% to 4.70%, which represented the next window from where my work indicated YIELD could reverse to the downside into a correction. The climb above 4.70% triggers a new path higher towards 5.00% next, in route to my optimal upside target at 5.25% to 5.35% for the current YIELD upleg from the 4/06/23 corrective low at 3.25%... 

From a trading and investing perspective, TLT (20+ year T-bond ETF) has pressed to a new low at 86.02 this AM and remains in the grasp of a powerful bear trend that started back in mid-March 2023 at 109.10 (see my attached TLT Chart below). 

As long as TLT is trading beneath key nearest resistance residing at 88.20 to 89.25, its dominant near and intermediate-term downtrends project lower prices into the 82.00 to 80.00 target window... last is 86.35...

We can only wonder about the extent of the damage this vertical upmove in YIELD (nosedive in TLT) is inflicting on banks that failed to get the message about hedging their portfolios back in mid-March 2023 or otherwise remain exposed to what is becoming an unusually treacherous period for holders US Treasury paper et al. My attached Daily Chart of KRE is a reminder of the HUGE HEAD & SHOULDERS TOP FORMATION and BREAKDOWN that have developed and transpired since early 2021 and the fact that KRE looks like it still has unfinished business on the downside before the larger pattern reaches downside exhaustion. Based on the nearer-term pattern setup, I am expecting a retest of the May low-zone at 35.80 to 34.52, and if violated, then to new corrective lows at 30 to 32. Indeed, KRE just might be signaling to us that "something else is about to break" in the financial markets... 

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