Targets to Watch: How Far Should This Rally Extend?

Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders!  May 1, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: 

-- Earnings: Last eve's upside pop from MSFT and META... Tonight's anticipated Reports from AAPL and AMZN... 

-- Economic Data: Jobless Claims this AM (came in higher-than-expected), followed tomorrow AM by the BIG KAHUNA: The Jobs Report for April...

-- Seasonality: In "theory," as shown by the attached seasonality chart below, the April rally in SPY (SPX, ES) should peak during the first week of May, which leaves a timing window from tomorrow through Tuesday for strength before a period of rest and/or correction for most of the duration of May. If only because this year's seasonality has overlayed reasonably closely to the 25-year analog, we should continue to watch it closely... 

-- Headline Risk/Reward: According to many of the leading Administration officials, a trade deal is imminent... 

Putting It All Together: Earnings, Data, Seasonality, and the increasing probability of The First Trade Deal or deals) combine to suggest that the rally from the April low should extend into early next week, propelled by optimism about better-than-expected Earnings, relatively soft Data that puts pressure on both the long end of the curve, and also on the Fed to cut rates, Peaking Seasonality, and a potential Trade Deal. 

Technically, my attached Big Picture ES chart setup argues for upside continuation into a Minimum Upside Target of 5710 (+1.2% from current levels) to a Maximum Upside Target of 5825 (+3.2% from current levels). My optimal Target is 5770-5775 (+2.2% from current levels), representing a return to test the Pre-April 2nd Tariff Announcement Peak... 

In the absence of upside continuation, a bout of weakness that presses beneath 5535 will compromise my currently positive outlook into early next week... Last is 5646.25...