Technicals On MSFT Ahead Of Earnings

MSFT-- Big Kahuna MSFT reports earnings after today's close. My primary scenario based on my technical setup argues that a positive reaction to the news will fail to sustain strength, and thereafter, MSFT will be vulnerable to another bout of corrective weakness that extends the 11% July decline from 469.28 (7/08/24) to 417.20 (7/25/24) into new reaction low territory that has a minimum target in the vicinity of 412-414, and an optimal downside target window of 396 to 402 (see my attached chart). 

Bottom Line: Barring a rare earnings disappointment, let's expect MSFT to report strong earnings, but let's also expect that upside response to be muted and/or relatively short-lived. The shallowest positive reaction points to the 435-438 target zone, followed by a downside reversal, while the best-case positive reaction projects into the 448.40-457.30 resistance plateau prior to my expectation of a resumption of corrective weakness off of the 7/08/24 high... Last is 427.56