The Elephant In The Room (Crude Oil)

The elephant in the room today is Crude Oil because the Biden Administration purportedly plans to release 1mbd from the SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) during the next 4 months (40 million barrels), but with the potential to release as much as 180 million barrels! 

In reaction to that news, May Crude tanked from yest's close at 107.82 to as low at 100.16 today. As we speak, Oil is circling 104.00.

My attached Daily Chart argues that as long as May Crude is unable to climb above last week's recovery rally high at 116.64, the pattern is vulnerable to pressing Oil to retest the 3/15 pullback low at 92.20, and if violated, then into the 85-87 target zone. 

Whether or not this massive release from the SPR will have any lasting impact remains to be seen, but let's keep in mind that the 40 million to 180 million barrels released into the market will have to be replaced by Uncle Sam at some point, which could be a major demand factor up the road unless the US heads into recession (reducing demand for gasoline).

 Be that as it may, for the time being May Oil is EITHER rangebound between 100 and 116, OR is unwinding down to a 92 to 85 target zone to complete a larger correction off of its 129.17 high (3/07/22)... Last is 103.95