This AM's Spotlight: HD, July Crude Oil & SPY

Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders!  May 19, 2026: What's on my mind this morning (besides appreciating that I was NOT called for Jury Duty for today!):

-- Two trading sessions until Wednesday eve's NVDA Earnings Report...

-- The NVDA Earnings reaction (Jensen making the rounds on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business) on Thursday will take the markets into Kevin Warsh's Federal Reserve swearing-in ceremony on Friday afternoon... 

-- Home Depot Earnings are a big nothingburger for investors this AM, which keeps the stock under pressure and in its bear phase (see below)...

-- Will POTUS "intervene" in the markets again today to support the indices just as they appear to be gaining downside traction? More to the point, though, will these "Trump Bumps" yield diminishing returns and will morph into long liquidation or shorting opportunities in the ongoing saga of a negotiated end to the Iran War?... 

On the subject of Home Depot (HD), the stock is down about 0.8%, making new multi-month lows at 295.01 (last seen in Nov. 2023) after an unremarkable Earnings report, and nowhere near impressive enough to overcome serious headwinds: Inflation at three-year highs, rising energy prices, and stagnant wages, all of which are delaying stronger sales growth for home improvement retailers (Barrons)... Continued below...

(FinancialJuice)

Technically, unless and until HD claws its way up and over 306.60 on a closing basis-- for starters-- the bears will remain in complete control of market direction, heading to a next immediate downside objective in the vicinity of 290, en route to my optimal downside target window of 260 to 275 to end the bear phase off the September 2025 high at 426.75. I will be interested to see how a stock like HD reacts to the swearing in of new Fed Head Kevin Warsh, who undoubtedly, will be on a mission to lower interest rates somehow-- even if it requires the BLS to redefine the statistical definition of inflation!  Last in HD is 297.63...

July Crude Oil is down about $1 (-1%) at $103.30, but we see on my attached Hourly Chart that the price structure remains in the grasp of the uptrend pattern from the 5/06 low at 84.41 to yesterday's high at 105.21. It is interesting that despite the "Trump Bump" yesterday afternoon (No Attack on Iran Tonight), Oil has barely reacted, and otherwise, is poised for upside continuation!  This suggests either that the Trump Bumps are becoming less believable or that the oil market is in a supply-chain conundrum that will not be easily or quickly remedied by an end to the war. Unless and until July Crude Oil inflicts some technical damage to its May uptrend by slicing beneath support from 100.35 down through 98.60, July Oil points higher to challenge and take out resistance at yest's high of 105.21 on the way to 112.00... Last is 103.36... Continued below...

As for SPY this AM, let's be aware that all of the price action from last Thursday's (5/14/26) ATH at 749.53 into this AM's pre-market trading has carved out a series of lower-highs and lower-lows as in "the definition of a near-term downtrend" (see descending white arrows juxtaposed against the descending yellow arrows on my attached 15 Minute SPY Chart). As long as the downside stair-step pattern remains intact, the bears will be in near-term directional control. For the bulls to wrestle away control, SPY needs to climb through resistance from 738.20 to 739.77, which will neutralize the Thursday-Tuesday downtrend pattern.

For the time being, the bears are in near-term directional control, eyeing a retest of yesterday's low at 733.39 (just before the "Trump Bump" goosed SPY to 738.75), and if violated, then toward a next lower target window of 727 to 730... Last is 736.46...